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About 1 of every 100 people develops schizophrenia; 1 of every 50 develops some other psychotic illness. People with relatives who have schizophrenia have a slightly greater risk than others: the closer the relative, the greater the risk. You are at highest risk if you have an identical twin who has it. However, not all twins who have identical genes share this illness, so that proves that genes may play a role, but they are not the only factor responsible for the illness. If it were just a matter of genes, then if one identical twin got schizophrenia, the other always would too; in reality, this only happens in about half the cases.
Other factors that may play a role in who gets or doesn't get the illness are changes in the development of the brain in utero due to exposure to viruses, toxins, or lack of nutrients at critical periods. Stressors in early adulthood can play a role, too.
We still don't completely understand what causes schizophrenia. Many researchers think it may actually be different illnesses, with different origins, lumped together under one diagnostic label. Until we understand all this better, it will continue to be very hard to determine the likelihood that any given individual will get the illness.